During kiremt (long rainy) season, maximum seasonal rainfall of453.2mm were recorded while, its minimum value(39.6mm) were received in bega (dry) season, respectively. However, in reality, each area has its own rainfall patterns. Moreover, it implies reducing the flow of heat trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, either by reducing sources of these gases or enhancing the sinks that accumulate and store these gases(such as the oceans, forests and soil).The goal of mitigations is to avoid significant human interference with the climate system. During this period, the length of day and night are equal. The annual rainfall recorded for the whole period was816.390.82mm/year. March 21 marks the offset of the vernal equinox. RX1day, RX5day, SDII, and CDD over Combolcha show an increasing trend, while CWD, R10, R20, and annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) show a decreasing trend (Table 3). 2, 2012. 3099067 The projected changes in the annual number of heavy precipitation days (R10) over Addis Ababa, Jimma, and Combolcha show a decreasing trend under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to that observed (Figure 8). 
Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. Prolonged exposure to high-temperature extremes can cause heat-related illness, including heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and death. [73] who reported that rainfall exhibited high interannual variability (coefficient of variation 1540%) during the period of 1977 to 2007 and projections for future climate suggested that annual rainfall will change by 40 to +10% over Ethiopia. During this time, the central highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterlies bring moist winds. It is the second largest zone covering more than 26% of the landmass of Ethiopia. 152, no. Its elevation ranges from 1176 m in the south to 3328 m in the north ( Figure 1 ). In general, the weather that impacts the surface of the Earth and those that live on the surface takes place in the troposphere. Solstice is an event when the overhead sun appears to cross northern or southern points relative to the celestial equator resulting in unequal length of days and nights in the hemispheres. Webdynamics, branch of physical science and subdivision of mechanics that is concerned with the motion of material objects in relation to the physical factors that affect them: force, mass, momentum, and energy. 2, pp. World Bank, Striving toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-saharan Africa: Strategic Framework 20162020, World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USA, 2016. As indicated by World Bank [63], the climate change is predicted to reduce the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Ethiopia between 0.5 and 2.5% each year. Seasonal forecasting, Climate Dynamics, vol. 6, pp. A. M. Thomson, K. V. Calvin, S. J. Smith et al., RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Climatic Change, vol. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreases towards the interior highlands. Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine. It involves adjusting to actual or expected future climate. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. 5, World Bank Publications, Washington, DC, USA, 2005. Register a free Taylor & Francis Online account today to boost your research and gain these benefits: Trend analysis of long-term rainfall and temperature data for Ethiopia, a Water Management (Agriculture) Division, Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kozhikode, India;b Department of Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry, Faculty of Agriculture, Saba Basha, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt, a Water Management (Agriculture) Division, Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kozhikode, India, c Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies, Cochin, India;d Geomatics Division, Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kozhikode, India, /doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2020.1835699?needAccess=true. 135, no. J. E. Tierney, C. C. Ummenhofer, and P. B. deMenocal, Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa, Science Advances, vol. In contrast, the number of heavy precipitation days at R10 and R20 also shows variability and a decreasing trend in most recent years. The EOF method isolates the dominant mode of variability and decomposes into spatial and temporal patterns. (Supplementary Materials). The number of hot days and hot nights has also shown increment. Its average climate statistics are representative of other northern destinations, including Lalibela, Bahir Dar, and Gonder (although the latter two are often a few degrees warmer than Mekele). 12621277, 2014. do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia. 0000004982 00000 n
Results show an increase in minimum (0.0190.055 C/year) and maximum temperatures (0.0490.09 C/year), while total rainfall is on a downward trend (from {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< Worldbank, Ethiopia: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change, World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USA, 2010. Conversely, dry season (bega) rainfall, showed an increasing trend while kiremt season rainfall with decreasing trend for the period of19012015. The summer Solstice: on June 21st, the northern hemisphere has maximum tilt towards the sun experiencing longest daylight of the year. Dire Dawa and the surrounding region are lower than the Central and Northern Highlands and therefore considerably warmer. First author would like to thank Government of India for providing funding support in the form of CV Raman fellowship for African researchers. 3, pp. 24, no. 0000017119 00000 n
7794, 2011. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). b. Mitigation measures are those actions that are taken to reduce and control greenhouse gas emissions changing the climate. Because of this, the need for urgent and effective steps to build resilience is unquestionable. The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systems and monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. In 2015-2016, the region faced the most intense El Nio in decades, sparking a number of droughts and flooding disasters [53]. Different places that exist on the same plane or angle of the rays of the sun might be expected to experience equal temperature. Windyshowers and thundershowers this evening, then cloudy skies with more rain likely overnight. 19, pp. Hence, the zone includes most of the agricultural land. The CRU TS4.01 is discussed at length by the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit [29] and accessed from https://data.ceda.ac.uk//badc/cru/data/cru_ts/cru_ts_4.01/data/ gridded at 0.5 latitude by 0.5 longitude resolution. 0
Temperatures across Ethiopia can range from 15C over the highlands, to above 25C in the lowlands. Over the last decades, Ethiopia has experienced climatic changes. The IPCC [78] report shows that greenhouse gas emissions are the leading cause of climate change and that the mean global temperature will increase by 1.45.8C by the end of the 21st century. R. Tayeb, D. Peyman, and S. Bahram, Annual rainfall trend in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, in Proceedings of the ICID 21st European Regional Conference 2005, Frankfurt, Germany, May 2005. (a) Topographical map of Ethiopia (m). 11, pp. The primary rainy season, Kiremt, occurs from mid-June to mid-September and accounts for 5080% of annual rainfall. 3744, 2014. Under normal conditions there is a general decrease in temperature with increasing elevation. By contrast, under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, we observed that a significant decreasing trend in PRCPTOT increases the frequency and intensity of drought occurrence over Ethiopia (Figure 10). Restore content access for purchases made as guest, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, 48 hours access to article PDF & online version. Webdo we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia (2011). Projected ensemble trends of temperature extremes over Ethiopias warm nights (a) and cold nights (b). 0000001196 00000 n
In Ethiopia, the Dega-zone is long inhabited and has dense human settlement due to reliable rainfall for agriculture and absence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria.Due to this high concentration of human population, the Dega zone has been intensively cultivated and has a high rate of soil erosion, overgrazing and deforestation. The projected precipitation extremes of CWD, PRCPTOT, very wet day annual total (R95p), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) show a decreasing trend. 16, no. The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. The modes that account for the largest percent of the original variability are retained after satisfying the traditional statistical significance tests [35, 36]. 16, no. 2: temperature-related death and illness, in The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, pp. These results highlight the need for planning and developing effective adaptation strategies for disaster prevention. However, the spatial and temporal patterns, intensity, and impact of extreme climate on socioeconomic activities are different from region to region. 24, no. M. New, M. Todd, M. Hulme, and P. Jones, Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century, International Journal of Climatology, vol. startxref
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Ethiopia and the Horns location within the tropical zone resulted in; The earths rotation axis makes an angle of about 66 with the plane of its orbit around the sun, or about 23 from the perpendicular to the ecliptic plane. The rainfall characterizations viz., precipitation concentration index (PCI), seasonality index (SI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI) and departure analysis of rainfall (DAR) have been calculated and interpreted. As pointed out by IPCC [1], climate variability and change are among the major environmental challenges of the 21st century. Mountains having typically fitting characteristics of this zone include mountain systems of RasDashen in SemineGonder, Guna in South Gonder, Megezez in North Shoa, Batu in Bale, Choke, AbuneYoseph, etc. The precipitation extremes of RX1day, RX5day, SDII, and R25 show an increasing trend, while annual total precipitation shows a decreasing trend over Jimma. This equinox experiences in Northern Hemisphere when the sun is exactly above the equator. Meteorological data records of daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data of one hundred stations were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency for the period from 1980 to 2010. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopia haverecords of highest temperatures. WebFuture projections of temperature and rainfall patterns in Ethiopia exhibit a high degree of uncertainty, but most projections agree that: Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by between 12C by 2050. Rainfall is highly variable from year to year. Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. The MannKendall test was used to assess the magnitude and significance of the changes. Mean annual temperature has shown 0.2C to 0.28C rise per decade over the last 40-50 years. 13, no. "Climate & Averages in Addis Ababa." 3, no. This study examines change and trends of 21 climate extremes of temperature and precipitation over Ethiopia by using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The inlet is part of the even more massive Glacier Bay that boasts more than a 0000010157 00000 n
In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn, temperature shows seasonal variations. Low 62F. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface is directly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperature variations in mountainous regions. Climate change is a basic concern in Ethiopia, especially since the 1970s. There are some mitigation measures that can be taken to avoid the increase of pollutant emissions. Different empirical techniques have been used to analyze the variability of rainfall. The bimodal types are short rain in February-April and the long rain from June to early September. Pas du tout Lgrement Bien Trs bien Parfait [1], Ethiopia has diverse climate and landscape, ranging from equatorial rainforest with high rainfall and humidity in the south and southwest, to the Afro-Alpine on the summits of the Semien and Bale Mountains, to desert like condition in the northeast, east and southeast lowland. [4], During the mid-1970s and the late 2000s, rainfall decreased during Belg and Kiremt seasons by 1520% across parts of southern, southwestern, and southeastern Ethiopia. 0000089999 00000 n
The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. 5324, pp. The watershed is situated between 63818 N to 8657 N latitudes and 37476 E to 382014 E longitude. The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. The area receiving sufficient rainfall for agriculture during the Belg season decreased by 16 percent in the twenty years up to 2012. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z<
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Webimpact on rainfall variability and vegetation coverage. 21772183, 2007. This zone has warmer temperature and moderate rainfall. Similarly, the nonparametric Sens slope estimator [47, 48] was employed to quantify the slope of rainfall and temperature change over Ethiopia. 0000003134 00000 n
Therefore, understanding the seasonal rainfall performance is important for agriculture, water, energy, and other socioeconomic activities. So, projecting the future precipitation and temperature extremes is important for providing the general information on the trend, intensity, frequency, and changes of climate extremes and their potential impact over different socioeconomic activities [2]. do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia 0000012705 00000 n
Webdo we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia. 443450, 2000. xref
A chronology of extreme events over Ethiopia from 1920 to 2016 compiled and sourced from the studies in [. In contrast, the diurnal temperature range shows a decreasing trend over northeastern and southern portions of Ethiopia and increases over western half of the country. Bereha is the hot arid climate of the desert lowlands. 21, no. J. P. Peixoto and A. H. Oort, Physics of Climate, American Institute of Physics, New York, NY, USA, 1992. Understanding the occurrence of extreme weather events especially rainfall is important for decision-making as it is a key factor in prediction and risk assessment [11, 12]. 361377, 1996. But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature is small. WebTrends in Temperature Variability Over the last decades, Ethiopia has experienced climatic changes. 0000038701 00000 n
These different seasons result in the temporal variation of temperature in a year in Ethiopia and in the Horn as a whole. When we speak of the latitudinal impact on the climate of Ethiopia and the Horn, we are considering the intensity of temperature in the region. Weather is the condition of atmosphere over a short period of time.
Moreover, the three leading modes of JJAS indicated 38.4%, 21.2%, and 10.9%, respectively, and the first mode shows that 38.4% was a positive trend over most parts of Ethiopia (Figure 4). Climate Change poses a huge challenge to Ethiopians as experienced in 1974, 1984, 2002 and 2015/2016 You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. The Daily rainfall and temperature data were used to analyze 23 extreme climate indices. The projected extreme maximum and minimum temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show a consistent temperature increase throughout the projection period. Yes, Ethiopia has a dynamic climate all over the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season. [5], Seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia basically occurs by the migration of the intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which tends fluctuating over course of years, oscillating across the equator from its northern most position over northern Ethiopia in July and August, to its south bending its position over the southern Kenya in January and February. 324, pp. Current Trends of Climate in Ethiopia. 0000002033 00000 n
R. Basu and J. M. Samet, Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence, Epidemiologic Reviews, vol. Besides spatial and temporal variations in different parts of the country, Ethiopian climate experiences extremes such as drought, flood etc. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia5.4 Agro-ecological Zones of Ethiopia5.5. 20, pp. D. R. Easterling et al., Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe, Science, vol. P. A. Omondi, J. L. Awange, E. Forootan et al., Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa region from 1961 to 2010, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Ethiopias equatorial rainforests in the south and southwest are characterized by high rainfall and humidity, while the Afro-Alpine on the summits of the Semien and Bale mountains, and the north-east, east and south-east lowlands experiencing desert-like conditions. 1, no. 99181, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2001. 245259, 1945. 39, no. Strong wind, high temperature, low relative humidity, and little cloud cover usually characterize Bereha. 12, pp. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. F. Engelbrecht, J. Adegoke, M. J. Bopape et al., Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation, Environmental Research Letters, vol. Major floods have been a common occurrence, leading to loss of life and property in numerous parts of the country. The results of the standardized seasonal rainfall anomaly and EOF analysis trend show a decreasing rainfall in the JJAS season and significant variability in the FMAM season. Locally heavy rainfall possible. The Wurch-zone is an area having altitude higher than 3,200 meters above sea level and mean annual temperature of less than 100C. Precipitation extremes like RX1day, RX5day, CWD, R10, R20, R99p, and PRCPTOT over Addis Ababa show a decreasing trend. (7, 12, 14) HUMAN HEALTH Ethiopia has a high incidence of climate-sensitive diseases. 4/5, pp. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and the annual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. The decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, ruminant digestion and manure management, synthetic compounds manufacturing, clearing of land for agriculture, industrial activities, and other human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. 2, pp. Other factors are environmental degradation (e.g., deforestation), chronic food security, and recurring natural droughts, that may contribute for shaping the climate change in Ethiopia. Water stress is already a challenge in various economic sectors [72]. Monthly reanalyzed rainfall data sourced from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) were used to assess the seasonal rainfall performance of Ethiopia. [52], the seasonal rainfall distribution during FebruaryMay and JuneSeptember (the summer season) declined over Ethiopia for the past decades. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 2016. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. (b) Selected station distribution for this study. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Rainfall is much more variable in both time and space than other climatic factors. P. K. Sen, Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendalls tau, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. For full treatment, see mechanics. The annual rainy day extremes are characterized by strong variability with a significant trend during 1980 to 2010 (Table 3; Figure 5). Ethiopia has three rainfall seasons: Bega, Belg, and Kiremt. do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia. [79] indicated that the temperature is likely to increase by 35C in the African tropics during 20712100 relative to 19611990 under the high-emission scenario including Ethiopia. The observed temperature extremes show continuous warming during 1980 to 2010. Due to the capital's proximity to the equator, annual temperatures are also fairly constant. Articles on all aspects of the assessment and analysis of weather and climate extremes are welcome, including: observation, detection, and monitoring; processes of creation, development, and extinction; external factors/drivers and internal mechanisms; space-time distribution and natural/forced variability at various scales; current and future R. H. Moss, J. 18, no. 0000056870 00000 n
109, no. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. This study was aimed to investigate the nonlinear effects of climate and environmental factors on monthly malaria cases in northwest Ethiopia, considering space-time interaction effects. Chance of rain 70%.. Tonight Windyshowers and thundershowers this evening, then cloudy skies with more rain likely overnight. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a measure of the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperatures at a given location. 3LA0S)d
L~+0y}}}} Over the last 50years, observed surface warming over land has been associated with relatively larger increases in daily minimum temperature (Tmin) than in maximum temperature though both show significant increases and extreme climate events which often have the most impact on nature and society [64, 65]. 0000006444 00000 n
Summary of the MK test statistic for precipitation and temperature extremes. 24172435, 2011. WebEthiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. Moreover, this study recommends that future studies should emphasize the climatic and anthropogenic drivers responsible for changes in the trends of precipitation and temperature extremes over Ethiopia. 5874, 2014. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). 5.1 Introduction5.2. During this passage the length of day and night are equal. Trend analysis for the long-termaverage temperature and rainfall of Ethiopia during 1901 to 2015 has been performed to understand the pattern of these important meteorological features under climate change. Efficient means of transport implementation: electric public transport, bicycle, shared cars etc. 359-360, 1999. 747756, 2010. @'d\0KxI(=|`
Climate is the state of the atmosphere over long time periods, decades and more. IPCC, Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2012, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 222, 2018. Parts of central and northern Ethiopia experience a sporadic, secondary wet-season, Belg, which often has considerably less rainfall and occurs from February to May. During FebruaryMay and JuneSeptember ( the summer Solstice: on June 21st, the length of day and are! Author would like to thank Government of India for providing funding support in the lowlands than 3,200 above... Over long time periods, decades and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate that! The trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies extremes show continuous during! Taken to avoid the increase of pollutant emissions tau, Journal of the atmosphere over a short period of.. Arid climate of the country the MK test statistic for precipitation and extremes. The surrounding region are lower than the central highlands, southeastern highlands and therefore considerably.... A given location due to the equator over long time periods, decades and more Cambridge Press... Articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine 99181, Cambridge Press! Temperatures across Ethiopia can range from 15C over the highlands, to above 25C the... The climatic conditions vary from region to region across Ethiopia can range from over. Rain 70 %.. Tonight windyshowers and thundershowers this evening, then cloudy skies with more likely. Period, the central highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the easterlies! That it varies greatly according to the equator, annual temperatures are fairly! 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