Polls close in 15 minutes inPennsylvania. ", "Why the National Popular Vote Compact is Unconstitutional", "Why Blue States Should Exit Red America", "Majority of Trump Voters Want to Split the Nation Into 'Red' and 'Blue' Halves", "Majority of Trump voters believe it's 'time to split the country' in two, new poll finds", "Biden came in to unite, but poll shows US is now more divided than ever", "47% of West Coast Dems, 66% of Southern Republicans want to secede from U.S.", "Shocking poll finds many Americans now want to secede from the United States", "Still miles apart: Americans and the state of U.S. democracy half a year into the Biden presidency | Bright Line Watch", "How People of Faith Voted in the 2008 Presidential Race". 4, another 2020 red state. Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. Thirty of Penns 44 counties gave Trump 60% of the vote. Use arrow keys to move around the map. 44% of Americans in the South favored secession, with Republican support at 66%; while Democratic support was 47% in the Pacific states.[50][51][52]. Regarding national politics, it is historically a "Red" state although in recent national elections it has gone"blue". Christopher On the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden campaign about Florida, what are we to make of the fact that the campaign told me this a few days ago about Pennsylvania that "we can win without Pennsylvania," though they didn't think they'd needto? [47][48][49] A different poll that same year grouped the United States into five geographic regions, and found that 37% of Americans favored secession of their own region. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the vote will report this year. Sen. Bob Casey and local Democratic Party leaders also said there was massive turnout in the Philadelphia suburbs, which would be a win for Biden. Again competitive in 2020, Joe Biden won by 1.2%.While still an important prize, with 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, like many industrial northern states, has seen population migrate away in recent decades. Includes 2016 Races for President, Senate, House, Governor and Key Ballot Measures. The Online Home of Author and Investor, Dick Young, President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks on Americas Energy Dominance and Manufacturing Revival Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2019, at the Shell Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex in Monaca, Pa. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour). These states often had more regulations and higher taxes. The Bay State added more than 480,000 people last decade for a total population of 7,029,917 in 2020. According to the NYT, more than 98% of estimated votes there have been reported. Your Cash Swept into Your Brokers Bank Account! That's why it was interesting to see Trump rehash his line on fracking in Bucks County during a rally on Saturday. While Hillary Clinton dominated in Philadelphia, winning 82%, she only took a 475,000-vote edge out of the city, compared Barack Obamas 492,000 vote advantage in 2012. Some maps use more classes, such as shades of red and blue to indicate the degree of election victory. by The Hill staff - 10/24/14 6:00 AM ET. These editorials note the increasingly polarized political strife in the U.S. between Republican voters and Democratic voters. Clinton:36,322 (35.80%). The key swing region is the. In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia and Arizona, states that had last voted Democratic in 1992 and 1996, respectively. Both parties have since adopted logos that use their respective colors (a blue "D" for Democrats[56] and a red "GOP" for Republicans). The Midwest has five states in the East North Central part of the region and seven in the West North Central. Cartograms developed by Gastner, Shalizi, and Newman at the University of Michigan provide another way to depict election results,[28] which change from a red-blue paradigm to one of shades of purple.[29]. Let's continue our tour around the Electoral College. One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. It is 62 percent Republican, 25 percent Democrat and 13 percent other. Given the general nature and common perception of the two parties, "red state" implies a conservative region or a more conservative American, and "blue state" implies a more liberal region or a more liberal American. MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse, Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Pennsylvania's CPVI is R+2. Prior to Election Day, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a request by Pennsylvania Republicans to block a state court order that allows mail ballots arriving up to three days after Nov. 3 to be counted. Pennsylvania is considered to be a perennial swing state, including in the 2020 presidential election. Geographic borders associated with district numbers may have changed. [9] That same year, a color supplement included with a July issue of The Washington Post used red for Republican-favoring states, blue for Democratic-favoring states, yellow for "doubtful" states and green for territories that did not have a presidential vote.[10]. The last two elections have seen five states and a district in Maine break their same party streaks. From the 2000-2004 election only three states changed Color. The four "mega-states" have established rival and increasingly polarized visions of state government-one blue, the other red. Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. Many argue that assigning partisanship to states is only really useful as it pertains to the Electoral College, as well as (more recently) the Senate, primarily a winner-take-all system of elections (with the exceptions of Nebraska and Maine). Special elections, if any, are excluded. 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events. Archie Tse, The New York Times graphics editor who made the choice when the Times published its first color presidential election map in 2000, provided a nonpolitical rationale for retaining the redRepublican link, explaining that "Both 'Republican' and 'red' start with the letter 'R. If youre willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for my free weekly email. [21][22] Another problem relates to data classification. [34][35][36], In 1976, only 27 percent of U.S. voters lived in landslide counties, which increased to 39 percent by 1992. This election cycle, according to Politico, the state is leaning slightly blue. The map was placed in the network's election-night news studio. In the 2008 election, most voters in most rural counties voted for Republican John McCain. The exceptions were New Mexico (Al Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004), Iowa (Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004), and New Hampshire (Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004). However, the combination of higher vote margins than Clinton in Tucson (Pima County) and Maricopa's flip from red to blue meant Biden still prevailed inthe state. Data: The Princeton Gerrymandering Project through 2018; 270toWin research. We identify swing states as. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and one district in Maine voted Republican in 2016. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. The only deviations from the preexisting red-blue paradigm were all in Obama's favor. Three other regions were red before 2016 and got redder: the West, conservative Central Pennsylvania and the Dutch Country around Harrisburg and Lancaster. The paradigm has been criticised on several fronts. Biden's projected win in the state was fueled by significant gains in already-blue counties, including Atlanta (Fulton County) and its suburbs. Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections choosing 20 of the last 25 . Further highlighting this polarization: While relatively competitive overall, only four states (FL, NC, OH, VA) were decided by less than 5% popular vote margin in the 2012 presidential election. Update on Election Day in Philadelphia from the DA's office here: "As of 9:00 p.m. on Tuesday, 68 incidents were reported to the Election Task Force and 67 incidents were peacefully resolved. It feels like the new Florida. Vice versa for Montana. Election maps often use a two-class color scheme (red and blue), which results in a map that is easy to read but is very generalized. Last election, Pennsylvania was a red state. Not one! Georgia: Red, blue or purple? While the blue states represented a comparatively small geographic area, they contained large populations, which made President Bush's national endorsement less than the redblue map would seem to indicate. During the 2016 presidential election, two districts (the first and second) gave Clinton over 80% and 90% of the vote. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. [1] Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties' geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.[2]. Learn about the meaning of these words and see a list of these states, as of the 2020 election. Map of election results. If the U.S. followed such a pattern, blue would be used for the Republicans and red for the Democrats. Survive and Thrive March 2023: How Long Have You Been in the Investment Business? Live results and analysis from the Jan. 5 Senaterunoffs, White House Correspondent & Associate Editor. [57], The scheme has found acceptance and implementation from the U.S. federal government as the Federal Election Commission report for the 2004 presidential election uses the red-Republican and blue-Democratic scheme for its electoral map. In U.S. politics it's common to hear red states and blue states, but where did the expression come from? Biden ended up securing a broad Electoral College victory, but only thanks to relatively small margins of victory in key swing states. It further claims that from 1976 to 2004, in an attempt to avoid favoritism in color-coding, the broadcast networks standardized the convention of alternating every four years between blue and red the color used for the incumbent president's party. Political polarization in the United States, popular vote majority by a double-digit margin, did not receive a plurality of the vote and lost the popular vote, Political ideologies in the United States, "When red meant Democratic and blue was Republican. Trump's lone breakthrough in the "blue wall" in 2020 was the one electoral vote from Maine, which he again won. Like around the country, we're seeing. In fact, many of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states which voted for Bush are relatively sparsely populated (Nebraska, for instance, has a population similar to the island of Manhattan). Explained! Mitchell Thorson, Kevin Crowe, Dian Zhang, and Dan Keemahill contributed to this report. By breaking the map down into smaller units (including many blue counties lying next to red counties), these maps tend to display many states with a purplish hue, thus demonstrating that an ostensibly blue or red state may, in fact, be closely divided. Texas was the biggest winner the second-most populous state added two congressional seats, while Florida and North Carolina gained one. Will Pennsylvania be red or blue in 2020? Not a single Penn county gave Clinton over 60% of the vote. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies. Although the Electoral College determines the presidential election, a more precise measure of how the country actually voted may be better represented by either a county-by-county or a district-by-district map. The Wolverine State grew by 2.0% or 193,691 people from 2010 to 2020, raising its population to 10,077,331. The reliably blue state in a presidential election was one of many flipped by President Donald Trump in his 2016 win. As of 2020, fully 35 out of 50 states in the U.S. have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000. In Maine, two of the four electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner in each of the state's two congressional districts. The following list is tabled from the last Presidential Election 2020. [30] It attempts to represent the margin of victory in each county by coloring each with a shade between true blue and true red. Both campaigns have armies of attorneys at the ready for PA and other states. Rural Clinton County, near State College, is the most politically balanced county, with 43 percent Republicans and 43 percent Democrats. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about . Similarly, one state south, 56.45 percent of Oregon voters chose Joe Biden in 2020 compared to just 40.37 percent for Donald Trump. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. (lighter shading indicates win 5%), Winner received plurality of the vote but did not receive an outright majority of the popular vote Massachusetts is a blue state with a red governor making red states look worse on mortality. But look, this is what PA elected officials told us could happen for months. Error! Cash, Money, Green: How Will You Feel in Retirement? The county with the most lopsided voter registration margin is Philadelphia, which is 78 percent Democrat, 11 percent Republican and 11 percent other. Trump, meanwhile, is trying to run up the score in those pro-fracking areas that already likehim. It is not a red state. [24] A juxtaposition of differing colors and shades can result in contrast misperceptions. But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump Michigan and Pennsylvania surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. [59][60][61], "Red state" and "Blue state" redirect here. The answer, of course, is yes they are both of those. [1] The feature proved to be so popular that, four years later, all three major television networks used colors to designate the states won by the presidential candidates, though not all using the same color scheme. Voters head to the polls on Nov. 3 in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state that boasts 20 electoral votes. Charlie We haven't heard yet from Allegheny County, which is also a top source of Democratic votes. The "Democratic blue" and "Republican red" color scheme is now part of the lexicon of American journalism. *Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. But the distinction between the two groups of states is less simplistic. States losing seats included Illinois, Michigan,. Copyright 2023 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives. Further highlighting this polarization: While relatively competitive overall, only four states (FL, NC, OH, VA) were decided by less than 5% popular vote margin in the 2012 presidential election. Is Your Good for Nothing Cash Doing Anything with Its Life? Light bulbs on each state changed from undecided white to Republican . For the GOP, this represented 179 electoral votes. By Allan James Vestal, Andrew Briz, Annette Choi, Beatrice Jin, Andrew McGill and Lily Mihalik. And since groceries are taxable, Idaho gives residents an annual credit to offset the fees (the credit amount is higher for seniors over 65). [5] However, at that time, a maker of widely-sold maps accompanied them with blue pencils in order to mark Confederate force movements, while red was for the union.[6]. A free app to create, analyze and share redistricting maps for any state. But the cultural wounds cut the deepest, and are the most likely to drive working-class people to look at the coastal elites and say: "That. You have entered an incorrect email address! Here's why Pennsylvania is a Red State to the core. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. These "purple maps" are useful for showing the highly mixed nature of voting, but are extremely difficult to interpret in detail. After the results were final with the Republican George W. Bush winning, journalists stuck with the color scheme, as The Atlantic's December 2001 cover story by David Brooks entitled, "One Nation, Slightly Divisible", illustrated. [33] The polarization has been present for only four close elections (2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020). Biden won by larger margins than Clinton in every county that voted for her except for Philadelphia, where he won by about 4,000 fewer votes than Democrats had in 2016. Further, all election maps are subject to the interpretation error known as the ecological fallacy. But in western Pennsylvania, as well as the northeast, it's more popular and has led to a boom in some areas that have been struggling economically for a long time. Some election maps, however, have violated this tradition by simply coloring each areal unit with a red-blue mixture linked to voting ratio dataresulting in an "unclassified choropleth map". In a 2020 update from the Rockefeller Institute, the disparity between traditional blue and red states is even more significant, especially for the state of New York, Republicans' favorite target . .mw-parser-output .citation{word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}^1: Split their votes. [41][note 1][42]. Vertical lines before 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 show Census-related redistricting breakpoints. Biden won Maricopa with just over 50% of the vote, a large increase compared with Clinton's 45% in 2016. A new, lower flat income tax rate will take effect in 2023. That's changed in recent years as political polarization has increased, resulting in red and blue strongholds with bigger victory margins. Which parts of Pennsylvania are red and blue -- or something in between? *Maine and Nebraska allow electoral votes to be split. The state's 20 electoral votes could be pivotal in the 2020 race. Same Since 2000: After 2020 Election The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee alluded to the color scheme when it launched a national Red to Blue Program in 2006. Some voters expressed concern about imposing constables, others reported feeling harassed. If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoralvotes.. President-elect Joe Biden flipped five states from red to blue this election Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania and is expected to flip Georgia, where he leads Trump. In fact, he said, some states may experience a "red shift," and even Pennsylvania's blue shift may change in the future as different voters adapt to the new absentee ballot system and counties that used to process them on election night stop doing so. Hi everyone from D.C.! Inversely, in solidly red states, most voters in most urban counties voted for Democrat Barack Obama; good examples for this would be Dallas County, Texas and Fulton County, Georgia (the locations of major U.S. cities Dallas and Atlanta, respectively). The 2004 election showed two of these three states to be true to the presidential preferences of their respective regions, creating a greater regional separation; thus, an argument that the country was more divided from the 2000 election. polls closed in Ala., Conn., Del., D.C., Fla., Ill., Maine, Md., Mass., Miss., Mo., N.H., N.J., Okla., Pa., R.I., Tenn. polls closed in Ga., Ind., Ky., S.C., Vt., Va. Presidential results by pre-election forecasted chances, Georgia Senate elections live updates: Jon Ossoff projected to win Ga. Senate seat, ABC News projects Ossoff victory over Perdue, Raffensperger escorted out of state Capitol building, says deputy secretary of state, Here are Georgia's election certification deadlines, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. It is not a red state. Also, theres a run off in Georgia so you may have two strikes incorrect. Crime rate U.S. 2020, by state. Forty-seven of the 50 states were consistent in voting for George W. Bush or his Democratic opponent in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. Eight of the districts gave Trump 58% or higher. Republican In recent elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes. This may have been a holdover from the Civil War, during which the predominantly Republican north was considered "blue". For example, due to the simultaneous contrast effect, the Bezold effect, and other factors, an area shaded light red surrounded by areas shaded dark red will appear even lighter. In 1908, The New York Times printed a special color map, using blue for Democrats and yellow for Republicans, to detail Theodore Roosevelt's 1904 electoral victory. State voted with the overall winning candidate. Earlier this year, one election official said the rule could result in upwards of 100,000 mail-in ballots being thrown out. Success! As such, a constitutional Republic form of government as the U.S. is (remember, America is not a democracy), could certainly be expected to vote for President Trump by an even wider gap in 2020. A large county or state in area may have fewer voters than a small one in area, for example. The source defines a mass shooting as a shooting where three or more people. Continue with Recommended Cookies. The Pennsylvania Senate, on the other hand, has been under consistent Republican control for decades. [45][46] Red states and blue states are states that typically vote for the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively. DeSantis: Standing Up to Corporate Activism. Anita What do you want to know? While all of these issues are concerning, none of them are too far out of the ordinary for issues that arise during any normal election year and this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and possibleconflict.". While the presidential election in Texas was said to be more competitive this year . Feelings of cultural and political polarization between red and blue states, which have gained increased media attention since the 2004 election, have resulted in increased mutual feelings of alienation and enmity. Holly Ready to hear what you have to say on Pennsylvania! Twenty red states are expected to go for President Donald Trump, and 23 blue states (including DC) are expected to go for former Vice President Joe Biden. Data: MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse through 2018; 270toWin research. There was an error processing your request. Two counties flipped from red to blue: Erie, in Pennsylvania's northwestern corner, and Northampton, in eastern Pennsylvania. While I had less reporting on this, high turnout was also reported in the red parts of the state, too. These maps give extra visual weight to larger areal units, whether by county or state. They had ads, social media, conference calls, press releases, you name it on, all on fracking. The 21st-century association of colors in American politics is contrary to the long-standing conventions of political color in most other countries whereby red symbols (such as the red flag or red star) are associated with leftist politics. The look of a map can vary significantly depending on the classification choices. Which means he's a Nebraska-02 (where he's currently leading) away from hitting 270 on the number, WITHOUT Pennsylvania and Maine's 2ndDistrict. What are red and blue states? Election results provided by the Associated Press. Several incidents will require follow-up byinvestigators. Pennsylvania has an middling number of people with four-year college degrees. Pennsylvania, where the U.S. Constitution was written, was the second state admitted to the Union, officially becoming a state in December 1787. The demographic and political applications of the terms have resulted in a temptation to presume this arbitrary classification is a definite and fundamental cultural division. In his address before the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston, Barack Obama spoke on the issue of blue states and red states, saying: "The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into red states and blue states red states for Republicans, and blue states for Democrats. [40] At the same time, the 2020 U.S. presidential election marked the ninth consecutive presidential election where the victorious major party nominee did not win a popular vote majority by a double-digit margin over the losing major party nominee(s), continuing the longest sequence of such presidential elections in U.S. history that began in 1988 and in 2016 eclipsed the previous longest sequences from 1836 through 1860 and from 1876 through 1900. Traditional political mapmakers, at least throughout the 20th century, had used blue to represent the modern-day Republicans, as well as the earlier Federalist Party. Click here to learn more about the role the Lancaster County Local Journalism Fund plays in Lancaster County and to make a tax-deductible donation. As the 2016 election cycle approached, the electoral map had become pretty predictable. But in 2016, although Hillary Clinton won Latino voters by roughly 30 points, turnout was remarkably . A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17states. Idaho solidifies its ranking as a top retirement state by offering many tax breaks for seniors. The state of Maine has seen supporters from both Democrats and Republican voters but the majority of Democrats voters, therefore, it is referred to as Blue State while Nebraska state saw a majority of voters from Republicans hence it is referred to as Red State. 2020 Electoral Map Results. In the three presidential elections since 2008, Indiana and North Carolina went back to supporting Republicans. The rate of drug overdose deaths has been steadily increasing in Tennessee over the past five years, and as with the other states, opioid drugs play a big role. [11] As late as the 1990s, Democrats were often represented by red and Republicans by blue. Holly If Biden loses Fla, North Carolina and Georgia, his so-called greater Midwest certainly includes winning Pennsylvania. And Biden did cut his losses comparedto Clinton. Differing shades of red and blue compound this effect.[25]. Eight of the districts gave Trump 58% or higher. 7%78%Median of all states 28%// State data highlighted23%Pennsylvania Median income Pennsylvania's median household. These are general election results for the years listed. He won 56 percent to Trump's 43. The next batch will be reported at 9 a.m. (I am deleting my post earlier that said Philly officials said they were not reporting more mail-in results tonight, because it appears to have been based on incomplete information. This problem is compounded if the units are not equally significant. Biden rebuilt the "blue wall" and expanded the map Rust Belt states have been the base of Democrats' electoral map for a generation, but along with winning them back, Biden also expanded the. The Democratic or Republican party of a particular state may have policies that departsometimes greatlyfrom those of the national party, sometimes causing that state to favor one party in state and local elections and the other in presidential elections. In 2020, the state with the highest crime rate in the United States per 100,000 inhabitants was New Mexico. Winner chosen by the House of Representatives Neither party national committee has officially accepted these color designations, though informal use by each party is becoming common. The Hill . Starting with the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms "red state" and "blue state" have referred to U.S. states whose voters vote predominantly for one party the Republican Party in red states and the Democratic Party in blue states in presidential and other statewide elections. Nevertheless, both parties have adopted logos that use their respective colors i.e., a blue D for Democrats and a white GOP with a red elephant for Republicans. Yet, because of just two densely packed urban clusters, the popular vote ended Trump 2,970,733 / Clinton 2,926,441. Charlie Many voters in Philly and the suburbs don't like fracking and want to ban it. NBC continued its color scheme (blue for Republicans) until 1996. Likewise, Republicans have elected many statewide officeholders in states that vote strongly Democratic in presidential elections, such as Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, and New Jersey.
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